by Sir Arthur Foulkes
Despite the usual predictions of an early election it is not at all likely that Bahamians will be going to the polls any time before 2007 or late in 2006 at the earliest. A quick glance at the electoral calendar will reveal that since the abolition of the seven-year parliamentary term elections have been held roughly every five years. The last seven-year term (it used to be called the “the seven-year itch”) was 1949-1956.
The earliest election since then was in 1968, a year and four months after the historic polls of 10 January 1967 which ushered in majority rule. That was because of the death of a member of the ruling party, Uriah McPhee, at a time when there was a one-seat margin in the House of Assembly.
The PLP government headed by Lynden O. Pindling decided to go back to the people in a general election rather than risk a by-election. The PLP had governed well beyond the expectations of many during its 15 months in power with some ministers turning in stellar performances.
Notable among them were Cecil Wallace Whitfield as Minister of Works and Warren J. Levarity as Minister of Out Island Affairs with responsibility for agriculture as well as public works in the Out Islands.
These two ministers (both of whom were to become founders of the FNM) had worked with lightning speed to bring much-needed amenities to neglected communities in New Providence and the Out Islands. So, from a razor-thin margin in the House, the PLP went to an overwhelming majority in the 1968 election winning 29 of 38 seats.
There are good reasons why a prime minister hesitates to call early elections. If things are going really well, he might be tempted. But he is more likely to believe that the more time he has the more he can get accomplished. The flip side of this coin is a prime minister’s worst nightmare. The closer the election, the less time he has to effect damage control in the event of an unforeseen political calamity.
The public expects that – in the absence of a crisis in confidence or some extraordinarily demanding issue – a government will complete its term in office. To spring an early election to take advantage of perceived unreadiness on the part of the opposition can offend the public’s sense of fair-play and cost votes.
Some years ago a government in a Caribbean country called an early general election after it had done exceptionally well in local elections. The voters took a dim view of this opportunism and kicked out the ruling party. It came to be known as “the curse of the early election”.
Also, perceived unreadiness is not always actual unreadiness. It is quite amazing how quickly an apparently somnolent opposition party can spring into action at the sound of the bell.
What some observers fail to take into account is that a dearth of high blown rhetoric and frequent demonstrations which capture headlines do not necessarily mean that one’s opponents are not getting on with the more mundane but important work of maintaining the party base.
The same way supporters of the ruling party tend to look at the opposition through distorted lens, supporters of the opposition also tend to look at government through similarly faulty equipment. Astute political leaders on both sides will see beyond the distortions and wishful thinking, make sober judgments about the realities, and conduct themselves accordingly.
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The Chairman of the PLP, Raynard Rigby is not noted for making astute judgments about political realities or, if he does, he is an expert at keeping them well hidden.
His political myopia is legendary as is his application of extravagant language to all political situations, great and small. It is quite an accomplishment to get a reputation for excessive language in an arena where hyperbole is usually the order of the day.
Last week Mr. Rigby outdid himself by ridiculously shedding crocodile tears over the possibility that the FNM will not survive its leadership fight and thereby reduce the country to the status of a one-party state! It would be even more worrying if Mr. Rigby really believes that.
While it is true that all things are possible, Mr. Rigby is out of touch with history and the real world if he believes the FNM is likely to leave the Bahamian people to the mercies of his own incompetent crowd.
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Party supporters do not like it when internal tensions and disagreements spill over into the open. Some still believe that intraparty fights should be kept from the public at all costs.
The truth is that that has not been possible (if it ever was) for a long time. Sir Lynden Pindling helped to destroy that particular discipline back in 1968 when a particularly intense fight was going on inside the PLP with grumblings about his leadership.
It was agreed that the problem would be contained within the party but Sir Lynden, without notice to friend or foe, let the cat out of the bag when in a convention speech at the Balmoral Hotel he dramatically challenged one of his own ministers, Cecil Wallace Whitfield.
The party chastised Sir Lynden. An apology was drafted and approved by Sir Cecil and Sir Lynden was made to read it to the public in a broadcast over ZNS. Sir Lynden never forgot this public humiliation.
Sir Cecil did not resign on that occasion but chose his own moment two years later when in even more dramatic fashion, he announced his resignation from Sir Lynden’s cabinet.
From then until today there is little that happens inside the councils of a political party that is not on the street in a matter of hours and, if it is interesting enough, in the newspapers as well.
What happened at the PLP convention that elected Perry Christie over Dr. Bernard Nottage is well known and some of it has been published. But some of it was so nasty that it is not fit for publication and hardly fit for mention in polite company.
It is a difficult thing to establish a truly national political party. Many attempts have been made and only two have survived and flourished. But Mr. Rigby should know that once established, a political party is not easy to destroy.
The FNM has been tested in the crucible of division and long years in the wilderness of opposition and Mr. Rigby and other wishful thinkers should not delude themselves into believing that a ship which survived category five hurricanes can now be destroyed by a tropical storm.
What Mr. Rigby and his colleagues should worry about is the intense interest that Bahamians are taking in the affairs of the FNM. That should tell them that people are looking to the FNM with the hope that the awesome democratic process they are witnessing will ensure that the FNM is the party of the future beginning in 2007, or even 2006 if they wish.
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