Bahamas Energy Policy to Focus on Security of Supply & Conservation

by Larry Smith

Apart from the fact that we are spending more money to sit in traffic these days, most of us have no idea how the world's rising energy demand will affect our lives. We are 'energy illiterate'.

But that may soon change. Energy & Environment Minister Dr Marcus Bethel expects to finalise the nation's first energy policy within weeks. And he says it will contain some "hard-hitting recommendations" to adapt our profligate lifestyles.

To understand just where things are, the last time the world was as concerned about energy as it is today was in 1973 - when the Arab embargo raised oil prices by 251 per cent and forced some big economic changes. Due to greater efficiency, Americans use 57 per cent less oil and gas per dollar of output today than they did in 1973, experts say.

But demand has only continued to grow, and within 20 years the world will use more than twice as much energy as it does today. That means oil demand will jump from the current 84.6 million barrels a day to 140 million, use of natural gas will climb by 120 per cent , and coal use by nearly 60 per cent.

There are three main factors driving the future of our energy economy: supply, cost and pollution. First, no-one is quite sure where all that energy will come from. Second, oil is subject to wild price swings and is increasingly dependent on unstable countries. Third, burning fossil fuels produces carbon emissions that are changing the world's climate, as well as polluting the air we breathe.

According to Dr Bethel, the government's new energy policy will seek to address these issues from a local perspective. A consultant from the Inter-American Development Bank has already prepared a draft report which is under review. That will be followed by consultations with public and private sector interests, after which the policy will be submitted to cabinet, probably at the end of November.

"In broad terms we are trying to develop an energy security framework for sustainable development," Dr Bethel told Tough Call. "Reliability of supply is critical and we have to recognise that fossil fuel will be the dominant source for years to come, but our policy will explore ways to lessen this dependency."

About 80 per cent of the world's energy currently comes from fossil fuels like coal and oil. Oil provides fuel for the world's 600 million automobiles and almost every critical industry. But a growing number of experts say we need an economy that is more energy efficient, draws on cleaner alternatives, and is less reliant on places like the Middle East.

The big question is, can we transition to that economy without major disruptions. Business-as-usual is not an option. The experts say changes in lifestyles and consumption patterns are necessary if we are to avoid international conflicts over energy resources.

Although oil prices fell recently to about $60 a barrel from an all-time high of $78 in July, analysts say that geopolitical uncertainty could easily reignite energy markets. And the long-term trend for oil prices is still upwards, as the growing world economy consumes more and more fuel.

There is also the fact that OPEC intends to stop crude prices from falling by adjusting its production levels. And the International Energy Agency confirms that – barring an economic recession -- oil demand growth is "very likely" over the next decade.

As Paul Roberts noted in his highly regarded book, The End of Oil: "By nearly any sane measure, the quest for less problematic forms of energy and more energy-efficient technologies should be a top priority for all players in the energy world.

"The path toward a new energy economy is fraught with political and economic risk. No-one knows when or if the new technologies will be ready, or how much they will cost, or what kinds of hardships they will impose...The current energy economy is an enormous asset, worth an estimated $10 trillion. No company, nor any nation, can afford to write that off."

So around the world, the overriding goal is to ensure uninterrupted access to a steady supply of energy. And while the precise shape of our energy future is uncertain, it clearly makes sense to take whatever steps we can to mitigate the disruptions that will eventually come our way in one form or another.

While only "ideologues and ignoramuses" (as Roberts called them) still discount the link between the burning of fossil fuel and global warming, it is not the purpose of this article to argue that issue. We don't need to envisage a global catastrophe to rethink our basic assumptions about energy - especially in the Bahamas.

"The real question," Roberts says, "is not whether change is going to come but whether the shift will be peaceful and orderly, or chaotic and violent because we waited too long to begin planning for it."

And hopefully that's what the government's new energy policy will do. Dr Bethel says it will "set targets for the conversion of a percentage of our energy supplies to alternatives, including renewables like solar. And we will also likely require that new developments rely on alternative sources of energy as much as possible."

That's not as easy as it sounds. Currently, only about 8 per cent of the total world energy supply comes from renewable sources - including hydropower, solar and wind power, biomass, geothermal, tIdal and other new technologies. And most of that total is from hydropower.

Although there have been dramatic improvements in the performance and affordability of solar cells, wind turbines and biofuels, switching to renewable sources requires long-term investment of technical, economic and political resources. As a recent article in Scientific American noted: "policymakers and ordinary citizens must demand action and challenge one another to hasten the transition."

The annual global production of solar panels jumped 45 per cent in 2005, and the generating capacity of wind farms (particularly in Europe) has increased ten-fold over the past decade. But the cost of renewables remains high and they must be heavily incentivised to promote widespread take-up in the Bahamas, for example, where only a handful of hotels and upper income homes have installed solar water heaters.

But experts say it is conservation - or wasting less energy - that is the quickest and least costly way to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels: "Our policy will provide guidance for both the public and private sectors on energy conservation and ways to improve our use of energy while maintaining security of supply." Dr Bethel told Tough Call.

"Of immediate concern is a public education programme. People pay attention to energy use only when it hits them in the pocketbook. So we need to guide them on what to do. The Bahamas is a relatively well-off society with a wasteful lifestyle that we have to change...my ministry has the responsibility to help the public take this issue seriously and plan to conserve."

It's a huge job. New car dealers, for example, report little interest among Bahamians in smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles despite the constant whining about gas prices. And hybrid vehicles that combine gasoline and electric engines to dramatically increase mileage aren't available for import due to low production levels and manufacturer concerns about warranty service.

Some two thirds of total oil output is used by the world's transportation sector, which also produces a quarter of all carbon emissions. We can't do much about vehicle technology, but we can force improvements in fuel consumption by restricting the importation of older gas-guzzling cars, or new cars above a certain engine size.

And Dr Bethel says the government's policy "will address energy use in terms of both electricity and transportation, which are the two biggest fuel users here. In transportation we want to encourage more fuel-efficient vehicles."

The September issue of Fast Company magazine featured a cover story about a $5 item that can dramatically cut energy use, reduce trash and save consumers lots of money. The product is a simple light bulb - the latest version of the compact fluorescent lamp, or CFL - but experts say it has huge implications for the future.

These new bulbs come on quickly and provide bright, white, steady and silent light. And they can replace incandescent bulbs in almost any fixture. But most importantly, while they emit the same amount of light as traditional bulbs, CFLs use 75 per cent less electricity, last for years and pay for themselves in a few months.

"What that means is that if every one of 110 million American households bought just one CFL, took it home and screwed it in the place of an ordinary 60-watt bulb, the energy saved would be enough to power a city of 1.5 million people," Fast Company estimated. "In terms of oil not burned, or greenhouse gases not exhausted into the atmosphere, one bulb is equivalent to taking 1.3 million cars off the roads."

Wal-Mart plans to sell 100 million of these bulbs a year, and a quick survey of four leading retailers here found that Bahamians are buying about 2,000 of them a month - a good platform on which to build a consumer conservation programme. Earlier this year the Jamaican government began handing out thousands of CFLs, and Cuba has imported massive quantities from China for its own energy-saving programme. We can easily tax incandescents, waive taxes on CFLs , and eventually ban imports of the older bulbs.

The International Energy Agency estimates that 10 per cent of world energy demand could be saved by 2030 simply by taking advantage of available energy efficiency opportunities and applying policies and measures currently under consideration.

Public information is an important part of that effort. Studies show that consumers respond well to the provision of historic information on their energy use, particularly when it is combined with more frequent and accurate billings. This information needs to be easy to understand - simple bar charts, for example, that compare household energy use with the last quarter and the previous year.

According to a recent British government energy review: "We estimate that even if the provision of historic information delivers only modest changes in behaviour, this proposal is highly cost-effective." This is something that BEC could do very effectively as part of a nationwide public awareness campaign.

If we can reconfigure our energy economy through greater efficiency, lower consumption, and sustainable, long-term alternatives to oil, the returns would be incalculable.

Comments

[EB Christen]

Spot on again! Thanks for the great update.

[keith bishop]

Great Article - Thanks.

[C.Lowe]

One of my favourite subjects.
The government did in fact reduce the duty rate on photo voltaic solar cells and possibly on windmill generators but this is only a portion of the total cost on becoming energy self sufficient or reducing the load on the grid.
Nothing was done for energy efficient flourescent bulbs, energy efficient A.C. units and water heaters or solar water heaters,12 volt D.C. appliances ,Inverters, deep cycle storage batteries etc,etc.
How about meters that run backward and sell your personal energy surplus back to the utility co?
As an aside the by product of L.N.G regssification is cold seawater, which by using the latest solar energy generation technology could have produced at least 50 percent of Grand Bahamas and Abaco's energy needs.
This same technology has been developed by the sandia Natl. Lab and is being installed in California and is expected to produce gigawatts for the grid.
And has anyone (aside me) studied the house in Grand Bahama that has for 20 years been airconditioning itself with an Israeli developed solar aparatus much the same as the old kerosine fridge?
What about the tide running through the Current eleuthra?
the Exumas?
Self sufficient out island energy.
Nevermind I just depressed myself.
Good opening article on the subject.

[Joy worrell]

considering liquified natural gas through the processing of a certian plant, the Bahamas can eliminate gas problems.The capability of solving thes issues are high and with myself and other investors, we as bahamians can make this happen.another issue is job oppertunities for bahamians.