Managing the City of New Providence

by Larry Smith

Government planning expert Malcolm Martini told a group of Rotarians last week that the future of New Providence was at risk unless some tough decisions are made soon.

He said there was very little land left on the island to service a rapidly growing population, and there were physical limits to what could be added to the transportation network.

In fact, if we exclude developed areas, partially built-out subdivisions, conservation sites and wetlands, there are only about 5,000 acres of vacant land left on this 86-square-mile island.

"Bahamians need to shift from a suburban land extensive culture to a land intensive urban culture," Martini said, "because population growth does not stop."

Martini, 66, is a top Canadian planner and economist who has worked on projects in China, Africa and Eastern Europe, as well as enjoying a stint as a Toronto city councillor. For the past 10 years he has worked on and off in the Bahamas, and since 2004 he has been attached to the Office of the Prime Minister as well as the (now disbanded) Ministry of Energy & Utilities.

“We have to think of New Providence as an urban centre – like New York," he told Rotarians. "The alternative is gridlock, and the prospect that this will become an extraordinarily unpleasant place to live."

Nassau is already one of the most densely populated areas in the Caribbean. Based on census projections, our total population today is 325,000, with 225,660 (about 70 per cent) living on New Providence, producing a density of about 2600 people per square mile.

Only Bermuda, (3,113), Kingston (4,760) and Havana (7,909) are denser. But New Providence grew by 100,000 between 1980 and 2005 – from 135,000 to 235,000 - and the population may reach 249,000 by 2010 and 300,000 by 2024. By 2030, Martini says, the island's population could reach 320,000.

"This is a medium growth scenario," he told Rotarians. "The high growth scenario says New Providence will have a population of 340,000 by 2030 - more people than we have in the entire country today. And it is not clear if everyone is included in these numbers. They could be on the low side."

Ultimately, New Providence could have a population of 400,000 or more, a higher density than the average North American city.

Martini also served up some interesting traffic facts. Vehicle numbers on New Providence are increasing by 35 per day - or 7000 a year. And there will be 21,000 more drivers (those aged 16 to 65) by 2015, 35,000 more by 2020 and 50,000 more by 2030. Think about that for a moment.

Our road capacity cannot easily be increased, and will always lag traffic demand because both land and money are in short supply. We are already years behind on the Inter-American Bank-funded road construction project that began in 2001, and it will be extremely difficult to develop new arterial roadways in the future, Martini says.

And if you think those statistics are depressing, you should reflect on two startling maps that Martini produced with data from the Met Office. They show the areas of New Providence that would be severely affected by storm surge from a direct hit by a major hurricane.

A category three storm would impact the airport and Lake Killarney area, the entire south coast (except for Clifton) and major over-the-hill housing areas. A category five storm could flood the entire island, except for the coastal ridge running from Clifton to East End and the central ridge running from Marathon to Lake Cunningham.

"These maps show the potential risk areas from a major hurricane strike," Martini explained. "But they also demonstrate that we don't have good high land to build on, and the land that is available now is not desirable."

Martini does not think much can be done to slow Nassau's population growth: "Draconian policies to starve New Providence of infrastructure services in an attempt to encourage growth elsewhere will lead to a drop in living standards, public health problems and more crime," he said. "That in turn will reduce the attractiveness of Nassau as a tourist destination and risk a downward economic spiral for the entire country."

The good news - Martini says - is that high population density does not necessarily mean a lower quality of life. The Canadian cities of Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto all have densities over 10,000 people per square mile, yet are rated among the world’s top cities in terms of quality of life. And Bermuda, which has a higher population density than the Bahamas, also has a GDP per capita (purchasing power parity) of $66,600 compared to our $20,000.

Manhattan island - with less than 23 square miles, 18 per cent of which is parkland - supports 1.6 million residents as well as 2.3 million workers drawn from the surrounding area. But Manhattan is also unique in the United States for its lack of reliance on the automobile - most residents use public transit and don't own a car.

The big difference here is that Bahamians have not come to terms with reality. We still think of New Providence as suburban or semi-rural, as it was in the recent past, not realising that we have already crossed the threshold to become an urban centre. We now have to think like a city, but a city without a hinterland that allows us to continually push the boundaries.

"My job as a planner is to connect the dots and see where we are and where we are going," Martini said. "The facts are that Nassau has a serious land shortage, the government has limited resources and we simply can't build capacity for all the cars we are going to have. The conclusion is that in addition to planning, we need management to make life better on this island."

That means getting the most efficient use out of our limited land resources and making public transport a much higher priority. For example, the traditional single-family home on a 5,000-square-foot lot may be a luxury we can no longer afford. Martini advocates designing an acceptable low-cost home using less land and relegating large lots to the family islands.

Other strategies include increasing the density of existing subdivisions; more careful use of the declining supply of public lands; building new high-density communities on the south coast with special flood protection; promoting residential uses in Palmdale, Centreville and downtown; setting aside Lake Killarney as both a recreational park and protected area; upgrading public beaches; limiting new golf courses; and creating a recreation island off the south coast - possibly using spoil dredged from the proposed new port at Clifton.

But the real challenge is to make transportation more efficient by promoting the use of buses to limit the number of vehicle miles travelled. Martini believes that the currently planned road network should be completed as soon as possible, but with a view to facilitating public transport - by providing exclusive bus lanes, for example. Buses, he says, must be able to move more freely than personal cars.

And the more people who ride the bus the better. Travel to Paradise Island represents a major portion of all vehicular traffic on New Providence, so one strategy would be to offer free transit for workers on PI.

Other ideas for making transport more efficient include raising import duties on cars or restricting the number that can be imported; staggering working hours; limiting truck deliveries to nighttime hours and considering water transport for some types of freight.

A key factor in all of this is security. People living in high-density communities need to feel safe - both indoors and outdoors. And they should be able to trust the transit system in terms of reliability, comfort and safety. We all know that there is a palpable difference on Nassau's roads when schools are out, so we must find a way to get more kids on buses - and that means better security.

"This is not rocket science," Martini said. "But the Bahamas is a very young society that has experienced only a decade or so of continuous prosperity and the change that goes along with it. The obvious tendency is for Bahamians to adopt the 1-95 model of growth, but we don't have the land or financial resources that the US has. So we have to adjust our thinking to fit our circumstances."

Martini's Rotary talk was his retirement swan song, although he may be called upon to do consulting work here in the future. His final message was that a planning crisis is looming for Nassau that requires a concerted and integrated approach to properly manage a dramatic shift to urban living. The $64,000 question is: are we up to it?

As architect Pat Rahming told Tough Call, "Every city confronts the same issues. The confusion that exists on New Providence does not result from the size of the population or the volume of traffic. It results from the refusal of the political directorate to publish a concrete development strategy for the island (a master plan, if you will), and from a habit of knee-jerk reaction to planning crises.

"The master plan must be under the direction of the Town Planning Department - not the Office of the Prime Minister - and it must have the absolute political commitment of the government."

Can we really expect our undisciplined and disorganised society to effectively manage this unprecedented growth? Well, present realities do not inspire much confidence.

For example, in 20 years we haven't been able to deal with a couple dozen vendors and jet skiers blocking a major public intersection. We can't rationalise the public health and safety issues at the Fish Fry. We can't do anything about a Jeffrey Waterous damaging a historic building in our prime business district and leaving it to rot in broad daylight. We can't control the importation of vehicles or their roadworthiness, much less how they are driven. We can't implement and enforce zoning regulations. And on, and on.

Clearly, we cannot stand on the beach and hold back the tide. But neither can we accept business as usual as a strategy for the future.

Comments

[EB Christen]

100% on the mark.

My question is: how long will the general public read and learn about all the great ideas that really do exist for the serious and focused redevelopment of the port, downtown, the traffic situation, the road system, the public transportation issue, education, law enforcement and judicial issues etc etc etc, before they DEMAND REAL ACCOUNTABILITY from these politicians - be they FNM or PLP?!

The ideas have been out there for 20 years or more in some cases, but nothing is done. The PLP blame the FNM and the FNM blame the PLP and the cycle repeats.

To give an example: it is laughable to read the PLP castigating the FNM, after just over a month in power, that nothing is being done about the Straw Market - laughable, but this passes for public debate in this country and will continue to do so until Bahamians stand up and demand more from these sycophantic, self-aggrandizing, pathetic and hopelessly unimaginative bureaucrats that sit in the house of assembly. The PLP had 5 years to fix the straw market and in 5 years did nothing - it is time for them to shut up and be the opposition and make sure the job is done right, not make noise about hot air foolery!

Watch the parliament channel Bahamians - watch what YOUR TAX DOLLARS are funding - that's right YOUR TAX DOLLARS - YOUR IMPORT DUTIES on food, gas, clothing, construction materials... YOUR STAMP TAXES on transactions and legal affairs - watch their 'debate' and see what a sorry excuse it has become. It is beyond embarrassing. Many, many Bahamians live under the illusion that they don't pay taxes, but income tax exemption doesn't mean tax exemption. You buy a car, put gas in that car, buy food, buy clothing, do something at the bank, buy property or go to court - at every one of these steps - the government has taken from your pocket - maybe not directly, but it charges all the businesses that offer these services and these businesses charge you - the Bahamian consumer. They have to - they don't have a choice. It is a lot of money... You can look at this and weep... or...

better yet..

STAND UP AND DEMAND MORE! Protest in Rawson Square, write to the newspapers, bombard the Minister's offices with phone calls, emails, letters, sign petitions...

Bahamians should be screaming for an answer as to why Education was allotted 31 million in the budget and the PM's office under Christie was going to get 23 million and under Ingraham 13 million. Now, Ingraham took a step in the right direction - you can give him that, but in a country with a billion dollar budget - how is eduction only getting 31 million out of 1000 million total available and how can the PM's office get 2/3 or even just 1/3 of education's budgeted figure? Yet, we give our ministers and many, many government employees cars and gas for cars and let government pay for it all as if we were the wealthiest nation on earth. Our MPs drive cars that US Senators would be envious of! It is laughable! Every Bahamian in the street will tell you that crime and education are the number one and two problems facing the country's future.

Nothing will change until it is demanded and no politician will actually get serious about pursuing a serious vision for the country until that is demanded - until such time, it will be bandaids and knee jerk reactions and BS and hot air in the House of Assembly. The choice is ours to make!

[Pam Burnside]

We enjoyed this article on the land (or lack thereof) in the Bahamas last week. I have this idea for another article on cars and how they are impacting our way of life in this small island:

1) Who benefits from car purchases: the car dealers, the banks, the insurance companies, the government (duty, stamp tax, licensing (car and drivers) etc) the petrol gas companies. It would be interesting to calculate how much revenue accrues to these entities per annum??!! SO they would not want to make noise about too many cars...their bottom line is healthy...so who will do the complaining as the amount of cars continues to grow and grow?

2) If you do a rough survey looking at how many persons there are inside each car - mostly 1, maximum 2 - why do we need such big cars if we are not transporting a lot of bodies or things? Limit the size of cars.

3) Why don't we have a PROPER functioning efficient PUBLIC BUS SERVICE? which would take care of our need to get around this small island. The funds HAVE to be made available to research the proper way of doing this. The jitney drivers association seems to have a good plan from what I have read...government agencies don't seem to want to work with them. The longer the private bus drivers/owners are in charge of public transport without government working with them, the harder it will be to get both parties to come to some sort of agreement.

4) The island is so small, but there isn't an efficient public transport system, so everybody HAS to drive. How many cars are there per household? (I would reckon at least 2/3 per household on average - 3/4 in many - because everyone is going in different directions. Can we impose a limit on how many car owners there should be per household? Should the banks, insurance companies etc then buy their own bus and set up a pickup schedule for their employees (that's a novel idea - adults can become like school children and get on the bus).

5) We do not have a tradition of car pooling so I doubt if we will just adopt the habit. You know Bahamians - they don't want to be beholden or bothered.

6) Jackson reckons that if we look at the amount of cars that are licensed in the country and if you would calculate the average length of a car and measure the sqare footage of the main arteries of Nassau, if we line up the cars bumper to bumper on these main roads they would stretch easily around the island, even a couple of times maybe!

7) Parking issues - we have too many cars and not enough available land mass, so everyone is on the road at the same time and then the cars are parked for the majority of the work day.

8) PI workers - as you mentioned - if they could have a bus system to pick them up and ferry them to and from work it would impact traffic during shift changes.

9) As you also mentioned, staggering work hours - isn't it ridiculous that we spend a least an hour getting into town from the east or west because of traffic?? It is absolutely nonsensical.

10) Where are the abandoned cars going? Are they still crushed and exported?

11) What is the pollution potential for exhaust in the country, especially with diesel from the jitneys? Has any study ever been done?

12) Schools - is it viable for schools to invest or contract out for buses and adopt busing policies for the school children? They do this in the Family Islands you know.

13) More roads = more tarmac= more heat!

14) Make Bay Street pedestrian only as suggested.

15) ROUNDABOUNTS close to TRAFFIC LIGHTS (argh-h-h-h!!) do NOT work - eg Village Road, Marathon, East Street South, etc, etc. Get rid of the roundabouts and SYNCHRONIZE the timing of the traffic lights at the newly created crossroads.

[EB Christen]

To Pam Burnside:
I like all your points save for the last one.

I say get rid of dumb traffic lights near round abouts and then figure out how to get rid of MORE traffic lights and put MORE roundabouts where appropriate. There are so many dumb lights that CAUSE traffic... this to me is the bigger fish to fry!

Study after study in Europe has shown that free flowing traffic, wherever possible, works better than trying to get traffic light synchronization right. If the Europeans, with their first world notions of maintenance and upkeep are banking on roundabouts over traffic lights, then shouldn't the Bahamas, with our deplorable standards of maintenance and upkeep, accept that this might be better as well?

On public transport, car limits per size etc... you are 100% spot on.

Cheers!

[Percival Miller]

Agree with Pam Burnside's point (11) about the need for a 'potential pollution' study, as it could buttress the public transportation and environmental planning (meaning public health) goals already set out or adopted from elsewhere. High numbers of active vehicles in crowded cities, in both developed and undeveloped countries, have been shown to be a major contributor to asthma and respiratory disease, especially in children and the elderly.

The high number of vehicles coupled with the smallness of the area and the high summer temperatures could cause a future conflict, as there is less of a sink for the inevitable pollutants (though local air flow and precipation patterns might be of benefit). The article and comments already suggests inevitable traffic bottlenecks, which causes delays and thus greater idling of engines, including of diesel-powered public transportation and freight vehicles (which speculatively would increase outputs of particulates, etc. from partially combusted fuel). Apart from the possible future and hard-to-remove public health impact, chronic pollution can also impair the surface of buildings and the streetside vegetation. Its obvious that clean, fast, safe and very affordable public transportation (however distributed or devised) would have a key role in avoiding an undesirable scenario, along with low-polluting private vehicles including high-mph, electrical, hybrid, small, and other vehicles that would meet the planning goal. But once we know how big the problem is, change presents a perhaps much more protracted problem, as everybody has to be convinced that what they are doing is good for them. It is however no stretch of the imagination to suggest that low air pollution could help sustain our tourist industry, as well as the health of our population and our inherited natural assets.