The Bahamas and The Extreme Future

by Larry Smith

As Winston Churchill used to say, the future is just "one damn thing after another."

And prognostication has been called the world's second oldest profession. In fact, it's about as old as the human race - and found in every age and culture.

The Oracle of Delphi in ancient Greece was the most successful prediction business in history, prophesying about wars and matters of state for about a thousand years, although recent research suggests the visions were produced by hallucinogenic gas seeping from a volcanic fault line.

Today the future-predicting business is a multimillion-dollar industry - and we are not talking about telephone psychics here. There are tens of thousands of futurists who make a living forecasting how things will stack up in the future. Perhaps the most famous among them is Alvin Toffler, who wrote a book called Future Shock in 1970 that has sold millions of copies.

Future shock is a term coined by Toffler to describe how too much change in too short a period of time can affect us. He applied it to the transformation we are undergoing into a "super-industrial society". According to Toffler, overwhelming changes often leave people disconnected and suffering from "shattering stress and disorientation" - a condition which, he claimed, has spawned many of today's daunting social problems.

Well, there is little doubt that we are on a technological roller coaster. Experts say there have been more changes in the past 50 years than in the previous 50,000. And they forecast that the next half century will see even more radical changes in the way we live.

One of Toffler's top students was Dr. James Canton, who went on to found a think tank called the Institute for Global Futures, and now advises Fortune 1000 companies and governments around the world on trends that are expected to reshape business and society. His latest book, The Extreme Future, is this generation's Future Shock.

Canton doesn't read animal entrails to make his predictions. He takes an educated and informed look ahead to identify, sort and analyse the innovations and trends that will shape the future. The tools he uses range from market research and computer models to human intelligence.

His new book was developed from a long-range strategic forecasting project undertaken for a variety of US government agencies and multinationals. Its main theme is convergence: pointing out the innovations in biology, physics, information technology and other areas that will all come together in some truly amazing ways over the next five to 20 years.

For example, in the future the Internet will be an all-pervading presence, with 3 billion people connected (up from about a billion today). "The CIOs of today are the CEOs of tomorrow," Canton says. "There will not be a business decision that will not be technology driven...and within 10 years, advanced nanomaterials will bring about a thousand-fold improvement in network computing power and performance."

This means there will be so much computing capacity that companies will be able to leverage data in ways that are only barely conceivable today. The virtual enterprise will become a reality, with everyone always connected and able to work from anywhere. But more interestingly, Canton says the Internet points to a linkage of millions of computer minds, with powers that will defy traditional measure.

"The combination of sheer power of so many computer brains and networks is a reality soup of infinite possibilities - one being artificial life. Things are not just getting more connected, but smarter and vastly more powerful. This self-awareness may be beyond human understanding."

Sci-fi, you may laugh. But in a more measured way, Canton goes on to outline the top 10 trends that he says will produce the strategic challenges that every person, organization and nation will have to face in the near future. And energy is at the top of the list.

The United States currently uses more than 26 per cent of the world's oil, and world demand is expected to rise by 50 per cent by 2020 as China, India and other emerging economies seek to fuel their fast-paced growth. The reality is that another three billion people will be added to the planet in the next 50 years, and new global oil discoveries peaked decades ago.

From this Canton extrapolates that "energy security will become an explosive battleground" affecting the rise and fall of nations, and new technologies such as hydrogen, wind and solar power will attract huge investments, invigorate global commerce and spawn new industries: "Energy will shape every aspect of the Extreme Future, from security to transportation to healthcare and growth. We must prepare now by investing in alternative energy sources."

His second major observation focuses on the innovation economy - a prediction that future commerce will be driven by a new convergence of economics, democracy, trade and technology that will determine the leadership of nations and competitiveness of business. And since knowledge is the currency of the innovation economy, we must reinvent education in order to compete.

That means creating a future-ready school curriculum with more science, more innovation, a more global outlook and more entrepeneurial skills; as well as retraining teachers, paying the best more and firing the slackers. Education should be all about how to survive in the Extreme Future, he says.

Flowing from this is Canton's forecast of a global war for talent, which is the key to business success. There will be more high-tech jobs than skilled people to fill them, and companies will compete aggressively for the growing shortage of skilled people. The Bahamas is already experiencing a brain drain, with our brightest and best staying abroad. And this trend can be expected to accelerate unless we implement changes.

Meanwhile, healthcare will be transformed by biotech and genomics into the largest market of the future, Canton says, so people will live longer and healthier lives. The "human enhancement marketplace" will provide us with new organs, new memories, new limbs, new skin and new lives. This will help developed countries offset economic decline due to their rapidly aging populations.

Amazing scientific advances like pervasive, always-on wireless Internet, teleportation, smart materials, and space tourism will change every aspect of our lives, culture and economy, leading to new jobs, new products and new options, Canton predicts. And nations and businesses that invest in future science will profit in economic growth.

But a new risk landscape is emerging - from eco-war, to Internet hackers, to terrorists, to mind control - which will pose unexpected challenges for individuals, governments and companies. In this scenario, the personal security market will become extremely lucrative. Billions more people will be sharing the planet and governments will attempt to control us under the guise of the common good.

Globalization will present both risks and opportunities in the near future. The linkage of national economies into one vast network is the ultimate goal of globalisation, and if handled correctly it can drive democratic reforms, reduce terrorism and promote social and economic progress. But it will also create a battle for the future, with despots, criminals and extremists seeking to hijack the process. We can see this happening today.

The environment is changing, Canton says, and we need to prepare for increased global warming, pollution, and threats to biodiversity. Climate change is real, it cannot be fixed fast enough, and it will pose a serious threat to international security and prosperity in the coming decades. But at the same time, this will offer business a big financial opportunity to clean up the planet. Clean technologies are a $10 billion industry today, but Canton forecasts that this market will grow to $150 billion within just 10 years.

The near future will provide opportunities for personal wealth creation that will underlie all other trends. Individual invention and innovation will accelerate business success. But, he says, we will also struggle to balance individual freedom, privacy and security. By 2015, closed-circuit security cams will be ubiquitous in many countries, including the US (we are already talking about it here). And Canton says individuals must be alert to protect their right to personal freedom.

"The real threat to individual rights...will be the creeping insecurity caused by more identity crime, more terrorism, even more economic downturns or disruptions.," he says. "The real threat will come in the form of a deal with the devil, in which we will trade our individual rights and freedoms for more security. This is a dangerous trend that we want to resist."

Finally, Canton addresses the future of America and China, noting that the destiny of these two great nations will shape the future. China will be building a city bigger than Philadelphia each year for the next 20 years, he says, and the transformation of this immense nation will redefine commerce, communications and culture.

"The truth is that no-one is prepared for the fast-paced and comprehensive changes that China is bringing to the global economy - not even the Chinese," Canton says. "The central question of the future is the extent to which America and China will cooperate. It will take balanced and wise leadership, on both sides of the world...Missing this historic opportunity would be a mistake of epic proportions."

Canton's thumbnail sketch of the world of 2015 boils down to this: Extreme competition, complex technology, dynamic global trade, increased population, disruptive acts of terrorism, sophisticated crime, climate risks, and expensive energy: "The level of accelerated change and the complexity of challenges will be like snowboarding an avalanche from the top of Mt Everest."

Many of the prescriptions offered by Canton to address these challenges can be applied to the Bahamas. Reinventing our education system, for example; taking climate change seriously; diversifying our energy sources; liberalising immigration and accepting moves towards globalisation. In short, we should be thinking and planning for the future.

Comments

[Rick]

Fascinating.
Thanks Larry.
Where do we sign up for the Jetson mobile franchise?

[Steffan Antonas]

Larry,

Fantastic article. There are several key point's you made that relate to how Bahamians can tackle the future - In particular, as it relates to education, you were right on the money with this comment -

"we must reinvent education in order to compete."

It's important that people realize how fundamentally critical training will be for Bahamians' futures - not just to allow them to compete for the hottest jobs of today, but for JOBS THAT DONT EVEN EXIST YET. That's key - the Bahamas has GOT to start training people in Information Technologies now to remain competitive in the future. The government, as well as the private sector, should consider investing in programs that give educational grants for top students now, and build incentives into those programs to reduce the problem of brain drain. Talent retention will be the cornerstone of our future success.

In addition to finding and developign educational programs, Bahamians can start by educating themselves on trends that will affect our economy and ecosystem, as well as trends in globalization and technological advancement. Here are some books/resources for Bahamians who want to stay informed:

http://worldchanging.com - A Website devoted to all things green and innovative. You can also buy their book at http://worldchanging.com/book - the foreword was written by Al Gore and has been called "the most important book of the 21st century" - it's got 600 pages about the latest technologies and green trends.

Books:

Green to Gold: How Smart Companies Use Environmental Strategy to Innovate, Create Value, and Build Competitive Advantage by Daniel C. Esty and Andrew S. Winston

The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It by Paul Collier

One last thought - given the state of the Bahamian government and their inability to move quickly to implement educational programs and to provide training and resources to Bahamian students and professionals, movers-and-shakers (people who are making a difference) need to start soliciting the private sector for the investment dollars needed to get education off the ground.

[Robert d'Albenas]

Great article! You're excellent at summarizing the essence of books and ideas...thank you.

[EB Christen]

WOW! Super article. Now, if only this was the kind of stuff being debated in parliament and not the 'wutless' s@#$! that currently passes for debate! Thank you Larry! Get the lawyers out of parliament and get businessmen, journalists and community leaders in!

[Bob Knaus]

I used to be in the strategic information technology planning business. I'd like to challenge a couple of Canton's assertions.

Firstly, today's CIOs will not be tomorrow's CEOs. The mindset and analytical skills needed to manage information technology are much narrower than those needed to lead an organization. To put it bluntly, most CIOs have too much intelligence and not enough charisma to be CEO. Trust me. I've worked with them.

Secondly, the key to progress for the Bahamas is general education, not information technology education. Only one person in a thousand is well suited to be a computer programmer... so why waste classroom time teaching every child programming? Instead, teach that IT is simply a tool to make life easier and work more valuable... that IT is neither to be feared nor worshipped.

In the global marketplace, a nation of creative minds and critical thinkers will outperform a nation of computer geeks.

[Computer Geek]

"In the global marketplace, a nation of creative minds and critical thinkers will outperform a nation of computer geeks."

This is true.

With a good idea anyone can get the funding needed to purchase an army of programmers or construction workers or artists or scuba divers or whatever is needed to make the idea a reality and start making money from it.

Truly good ideas come from a knowledgeable mind. An imaginative mind that can create something completely new. Or an experienced and diversified mind that can look at many unrelated pieces and bring them together so that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.