Brother Brave vs. Mother Pratt—The Deputy Leadership of the PLP

by Simon

•Simon is a young Bahamian with things on his mind who wishes to remain anonymous. His column 'Front Porch' is published every Tuesday in the Nassau Guardian. He can be reached at frontporchguardian@gmail.com.

Though Philip “Brave” Davis is demonstrating the ruthlessness and laser-like ambition needed to become Leader of the PLP and Prime Minister, this is no guarantee of success or of his ability and readiness to lead.

While he possesses the intellectual and financial resources needed to pursue these dual prizes, he must surmount significant obstacles, testing his ruthlessness and ambition as well as his financial prowess and brainpower – and his savvy.

Asking parliamentarians to take a 20 percent pay cut, a cut which a man with his earning capacity would barely feel, he may have won public praise while provoking ill-will among his party’s parliamentary caucus. Has he forgotten that his main audience now is convention delegates, not the general public?

Though dutifully respecting his Leader, calculatingly defending him on occasion to boost his standing among his former law partner’s supporters, Mr.  Davis wants Perry Christie to step aside, post-haste, making room for his vision of a new PLP.

If Mr. Christie is pushed out, which is highly unlikely, or jumps, which is likelier than many imagine, Brave Davis will be waiting – not in the wings like some, but on centre stage.

UNCERTAINTIES

With better timing than B. J. Nottage and more message discipline than Jerome Fitzgerald, Mr. Davis knows he must act now, despite the uncertainties and the chess-board of calculations he must factor in his prime ministerial bid.

It has always been thus.  While “chance [usually] favours the prepared mind”, hesitance usually destroys the ambitions of ambivalent politicians.

Uncertainties abound, with the future and mutual plans of the party’s Leader and his Deputy, including talk of retirement, tied to the intensity and duration of the global economic meltdown and the FNM’s generally effective response to this extraordinary crisis.

If the former Prime Minister -- among whose fiercest adversaries are now two former law partners -- senses that the FNM is vulnerable because of the economic crisis, he may opt for a rematch with Hubert Ingraham and a potential comeback after an unexpected and embarrassing defeat after a single term.

But if he senses the possibility of successive defeats he may go the statesman’s route, stepping down as Leader within a year or so, throwing his critical support behind a successor whom he trusts.

If Mr. Christie marches on to 2012 and loses, the sitting Deputy Leader may be poised to take over.  If he defeats Mr. Ingraham, the bets regarding an eventual successor are more complicated.

But if Mr. Christie opts out within a year or fails to bring the PLP back to power, Mother Pratt and Mr. Davis may feature prominently in the succession.  Because Mr. Christie is probably unbeatable as Leader, the race for Deputy is more interesting and the race to watch.

Despite longstanding speculation about Mother Pratt’s retirement as Deputy Leader, she may decide to stay, for a variety of reasons.  Mr. Christie may want her to remain in post, stalling the ambitions of his adversaries.

The first female Deputy Leader of a major party and Deputy Prime Minister may conclude it is wiser to postpone any decisions on her political future until after Perry Christie’s plans are clearer.

Should Mr. Christie leave in a year or so, Mother Pratt may pursue the same double crowns as Brave Davis, with the first round in such a contest potentially coming in November if both run for Deputy.

ADVANTAGE

Brave Davis has little choice but to run, even if it results in a loss to Mother Pratt.  In a crowded field the current Deputy will have the advantage, with Mr. Davis increasing his chances in a two-way contest. 

Such a contest will test Mr. Christie’s and Mrs. Pratt’s support in the PLP and potentially boost Mr. Davis’ star within the party and nationally, depending on how close he comes and if he loses gracefully, without creating further disunity within a fractured party.  Of course, he might just win.

Politics isn’t only filled with strange bedfellows, it is also charged with irony and paradox.  While Mother Pratt would be the popular favourite to win reelection as Deputy, should Mr. Christie retire sometime next year her possible desire to become Leader may meet with considerable resistance in the PLP.

An ironic aside is that while Mother Pratt may be unbeatable in St. Cecelia’s, Brave Davis is more vulnerable in Cat Island.  Seizing the leadership of the PLP is one thing, winning reelection to a House seat in 2012 is another matter.

Having served as Acting Prime Minister, perhaps inspired by the career of former Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller, who continues to serve as Opposition Leader and head of the People’s National Party, and propelled by her historic achievement, the woman who is well-regarded as a “Mother” of the nation, may believe it is her destiny to lead the country as the first female Prime Minister.

Questions about who might best lead the party and the country, rather then sexism, will play a more decisive role in who the PLP elects as Leader should Mr. Christie vacate that post. 

Though Mrs. Simpson-Miller succeeded P. J. Patterson as Prime Minister prior to a general election, she failed to secure her own national mandate, not because of her gender, but because of missteps, poor timing, and a religiosity which even many religious voters worried she was wearing on her sleeves.

ATTRIBUTES

For all of Mother Pratt’s accomplishments and gifts, many Bahamians -- as is the case with many male aspirants -- may not believe that she has the necessary combination of attributes needed to be the nation’s Chief Executive. 

Perhaps this is not the case. But if it is, some of the PLP’s chief mandarins and their respective camps may coalesce around a candidate, other than the popular Mother Pratt, whom they feel is more electable nationally. 

Mr. Davis will certainly be a contender, having demonstrated a number of the qualities the PLP may be looking for in a new Leader. 

But to seize the PLP’s top prize then ready a disunited party for 2012, the MP for Cat Island will have to be less the courtly gentleman the public knows from his public presentations, including his contributions in the House of Assembly, and more the fierce advocate he often becomes in the courtroom.

How he disciplines, integrates and deploys these aspects of his personality and public persona -- along with “Events, dear boy, events.” -- will determine whether, if he becomes Leader, he can surmount the obstacles and possible slips between the cup of success and the lip of ambition.

Whether Brave Davis succeeds or not, the next Leader of the PLP must possess the aggressiveness -- a mixture of charm and ruthlessness -- needed to discipline the unruly, refill empty coffers, deselect toxic incumbents, promote new blood and ideas and demonstrate a talent for executive competence.

The upcoming leadership battles in the PLP, which are also coming in the FNM at some point, are but part of an enduring struggle between continuity and change, mutually essential for the renewal of any organization.

In the race to succeed Perry Christie as Leader of the PLP, a variety of scenarios are possible with a host of the party’s leadership talent featuring prominently in the struggle between continuity and change.

A contest between Mother Pratt and Brave Davis for Deputy Leader then possibly Leader and the respective outcomes will send a telling signal to the country as to the future direction of the PLP and its readiness to challenge the FNM in an effort to return to government.

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