The Road to an Electric Future in the Bahamas

by Larry Smith

Following the unprecedented spike in oil prices in 2008, this column considered the prospects for electric vehicles as a way to cut pollution as well as fuel costs. At the time, availability was limited to high-cost, low-speed mini cars, with mass production of no-compromise, highway-capable vehicles still a few years off.

The Bahamas Motor Dealers Association's upcoming new car show (set for March 26 at the Marathon Mall), plus recent inquiries from interested readers, prompted an update to this story. Interest in electric cars is spurred as much by fear of a pending resurgence in fuel prices as the world economy recovers, as by a desire to see ahead of the industry curve.

So where do things stand today? Well, the short answer is that all of the industry timetables are apparently being met - and we are still on track for broad availability of battery electric vehicles by 2012 from several start-ups as well as many mainstream manufacturers. And analysts estimate that hybrids and all-electric vehicles together will account for some 30 per cent of auto sales in the US and Europe by 2020.

Mitsubishi's iMiEV goes on sale in Japan next month with a $24,000 price tag, but it will take the next three years to ramp up production. The Nissan Leaf will be introduced at the end of this year - and Nissan says it will soon be able to produce half a million EVs a year. Meanwhile, the Chevy Volt - which has a small gasoline engine as well as an electric motor - is also set to launch later this year, with a $30-40,000 price tag.

Others are playing catch-up. Daimler will introduce an electric Smart Car later this year. Ford will launch two EVs next year, Toyota’s all-electric car will debut in 2012, and Volkswagen will launch an electric mini-car in 2013, followed by electric versions of the Golf, Jetta and other models. In addition, most manufacturers will be producing many more hybrid models - cars that combine electric drive with gasoline engines.

At the Geneva auto show earlier this month, CEO Carlos Ghosn said Renault and Nissan would lead the industry in mass-producing battery-powered vehicles next year. And new consumer surveys show that large percentages of car owners in the United States (30%), Israel (57%), Denmark 40%) and Australia (39%) want their next vehicles to be electric.

Nissan-Renault have been the most aggressive industry proponents of pure electric vehicles. They are investing billions in electric-vehicle assembly lines and battery plants around the world to bring capacity up to 200,000 units a year by 2012. To keep the price down, they plan to sell the Leaf without batteries. Instead, owners will rent batteries and pay for the miles used, rather like a cellular phone plan.

This is the transformational business model being promoted by Shai Agassi's Better Place, which is introducing managed EV charging networks in several countries, beginning with Israel and Denmark next year. It will then implement early deployment projects in Australia and select North American markets. This switchable battery solution addresses the range of fixed battery electric cars - usually 40 to 100 miles per charge. Drivers will recharge at home, at public plug-in stations, or by swapping batteries at switch stations. The price will be about $120 a month in the US for battery rental and electricity.

Agassi is an Israeli, and Israel (which has no oil of its own) was the first country to sign on to the Better Place model. Israel has cut import taxes on EVs to 10 per cent compared with 83 per cent for gasoline models. Denmark offers a minimum $40,000 tax break on electric cars — and free downtown parking - while imposing a punitive tax of about 200 per cent on cars with internal combustion engines.

Some people believe that a gas-powered car's cost per mile is comparable to an electric vehicle. And since the electricity for recharging is often generated by fossil fuel power plants, they question whether electrification really works out to be better for the environment. But when you compare battery to gasoline power, electricity wins hands down.

A 2007 American study calculated that powering a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle would cost the equivalent of roughly 75 cents per gallon of gasoline. And the US estimates that three-quarters of the country’s small vehicle fleet could be charged by the existing electrical grid without building new power plants.

Experts also agree that air pollution can be significantly reduced by switching to electric vehicles, and can be cut even further by using cleaner electrical sources like wind and solar. Even relying on fossil fuel power plants, overall levels of greenhouse gases would be reduced because the entire process of moving a car one mile is more efficient using electricity than producing gasoline and burning it in a car's engine.   

The US has already evaluated the impact of vehicle recharging on the electrical grid. A government study determined that if all the cars and light trucks in the US switched from oil to electricity, idle capacity in the existing power system could generate most of the electricity consumed. And preliminary indications are that a few hundred EV's in this market won't crash the grid either. According to BEC chairman Michael Moss, our peak load occurs between 7 and 11pm:

"Battery charging during these hours may overload distribution circuits. But system loads after midnight until around 7 in the morning average around only 60 per cent of peak load, so this will be the ideal time for battery charging," he told me recently." I suppose most charging pedestals could be programmed to provide charging only after midnight, with a limited number strategically located to provide 24-hour service at higher cost."

Typical American households used about 11,000 kilowatt hours of electricity annually in 2001. And studies show that adding an electric vehicle with 5–10 kWh of useable battery capacity that is charged once per day could add an additional 21–43% per year to the household electricity load - comparable to average central air conditioning and refrigeration loads.

Another big concern is the batteries themselves. The lead-acid batteries currently used in cars powered by either gasoline or electricity are a major source of ground pollution. Both sulphuric acid and lead are highly toxic to humans and animals. But next-generation EV's will use more powerful lithium ion batteries, which do not contain cadmium, lead, mercury and other poisonous elements. They will also be designed to last several years and can be recycled for other uses after that.

Improper disposal of lead-acid batteries is already a major cause for concern in developing countries like the Bahamas, where environmental regulations are lax. Used car, truck, motorcycle and boat batteries are considered hazardous waste and should be shipped to battery reclaimers. But most still end up in landfills where they can pollute the water table.

Unfortunately, this is the current practice here. Government landfills around the country are supposed to provide special facilities where hazardous waste can be stored until properly disposed of. But there is also a local grey market that reclaims lead from waste batteries, with the acid simply being dumped. But these practices have nothing to do with electric vehicles.

We should also consider the capacity of local auto dealerships to market and service electric vehicles. Change can be painfully slow in the Bahamas, but it can also create a bandwagon effect. When EVs are more widely available they are likely to become fashionable as the next big thing. Local dealers need to anticipate this and determine what investment in training and facilities is needed to leverage the trend.

Finally, there is the government itself - the Bahamian institution that is perhaps most resistant to change. Currently, new vehicles attract a duty rate of 55 to 85 per cent. Hybrids attract a rate of 25 per cent, but no local dealer imports them because manufacturers require special training and equipment to service them. 

In response to recent inquiries, Ministry of Finance officials said pure electric vehicles would attract the same duty as gasoline-powered cars, which would make imports uneconomical. So, while you shouldn't expect to see any EVs at the BMDA new car show later this month, now is the time to express an interest and encourage dealers to lobby the government for a more sensible policy.

Comments

[Lil Tangerine]

"Currently, new vehicles attract a duty rate of 55 to 85 per cent. Hybrids attract a rate of 25 per cent,"

...but...

"Ministry of Finance officials said pure electric vehicles would attract the same duty as gasoline-powered cars"

See, this why weed needs to be legalized. Whatever MoF smoking is giving them mental retardation.

[larry smith]

I couldn't agree with you more.

[James Edwards]

I quite agree with a lot of what you had to say. I have been doing my own private research here in the Bahamas for clean electrical energy and I believe we are in big trouble.

BEC seems set on keeping the present system, and we are not going to have lower electricity rates if we only allow outside companies from another country to generate and then sell energy to BEC for resale back to the public.

This seems to be the road that they are on and I find that very disturbing. Those companies will have to be paid and the only way to pay them is to from our energy bills.

Why can't we look at the process of allowing an entire small island to be off fossil fuel?

As it relates to handling lead acid batteries, I believe that we can deal with them. I see them as a new industry and job creator for the Bahamas. It is being done in America and we can do it here. We can deal with lead acid batteries this way:

Use sodium bicaronate to neutralise the acid and recycle the entire battery.

You are also right about cars. We will see fully autonomous electrical and air powered cars with their own power plant built in for recharging.

We need to diversify our energy portfolio change some laws and allow the public to become autonomous of the grid. This will only enhance the grid and not harm it.

[Lurkey McLurker]

"...we are not going to have lower electricity rates if we only allow outside companies from another country to generate and then sell energy to BEC for resale back to the public.

This seems to be the road that they are on and I find that very disturbing..."

I haven't heard about this! Where can I get more information?

[larry smith]

check this out...

http://www.bahamasecoforum.com/

[Walter Grattan]

I read your EV article with interest and was wondering when you would get to the subject of tax, which you never did.

Most governments depend hugely on fuel taxes, especially Europe. I realize this was not the subject of your article, but I do not see how it can be divorced. It would be extremely difficult to devise a system for household use and another for vehicular.

Diesel vehicles can quite well use cooking oil, but in England you do so at your peril as Customs and Excise would chase you down the road to extract their duty.

Another point of interest I have spoken to a number of people about, but can get no difinitive answer - electricity generation. We talk about green energy, you may have seen my letter to The Tribune some weeks ago, when I discussed all the new-fangled ideas and their problems = wind, which kills many birds, nuclear, enormous expense and possible horrendous consequences, mirrors, covering vast areas to concentrate the sun etc.

What I am suggesting has in some form been tried before, follow the internet going back a couple of centuries or more. Build a water tank, fit magnifying glasses, adjusted to the sun, in the top, and boil water in no time to turn the turbines, exactly what they do in nuclear but for a fraction of the cost. You may need a standby for extended periods of low sun, but with the improvement of battery storage this may also be eliminated. It could either be closed circuit or you have all the distilled water you want. What do you think?

[larry smith]

It's true that the government presently gets a lot of revenue from the auto industry - import duties on fuel and vehicles. And that makes change very difficult for them. But everyone agrees that we will eventually be moving to a VAT tax.

Also, I don't expect more than a few EVs here at first anyway - and there is a post-2012 horizon.

There is something similar to what you describe in Spain - a solar collecting tower where mirrors reflect heat on boilers.

I think distributed power or co-generation is the answer here. This is interesting too...

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6228923n