The First Six Months of 2010

by Larry Smith

As we start the new year hoping for better times ahead, here is a selective calendar for the first six months of 2010.

JANUARY

Bye-election for Elizabeth constituency. Estranged Progressive Liberal Party MP Malcolm Adderley resigned from the party and from his parliamentary seat, reportedly to become a Supreme Court justice (he acted as a judge from 1999 to 2000). A bye-election to fill the vacant seat must be held within 21 to 30 days from the date the writ is filed, assuming there is more than one candidate—since the cash-strapped PLP opposes a poll. Bye-elections are generally perceived to favour the party in office, but there have been exceptions to this rule. In 1960 the opposition PLP won four new constituencies on New Providence set up as a result of electoral reforms piloted by the British following the 1958 general strike. The PLP's Warren Levarity also won a bye-election on Grand Bahama that year. However, the PLP went on to lose the general election two years later. The opposition UBP's Basil Kelly won a hotly-contested bye-election in 1967 in Crooked Island and Acklins, and the opposition FNM won a 1990 by-election in Grand Bahama held after the death of then FNM leader Sir Cecil Wallace-Whitfield. Hubert Ingraham replaced Sir Cecil as leader and went on to win the 1992 general election.

The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos, Switzerland. This annual, invitation-only meeting has engaged leaders from all walks of life to help shape the global agenda for the last four decades. This year they are being asked to "Rethink, Redesign and Rebuild". Co-chairs include Melinda Gates (of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), Erich Schmidt of Google and Joseph Ackerman of Deutsche Bank. Among the 2500 participants are top executives, senior government representatives, academic experts and journalists. Last year, participants agreed with former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan's assessment that "the current architecture of managing global affairs is broken and needs to be fixed...new players have to be integrated and the poor have to be given a voice." His advice was acted upon with the emergence later last year of the Group of 20 nations (including the top developing countries) as the chief global kitchen cabinet.

Obama's first State of the Union address is likely to take place on January 26. It will mostly be about creating jobs, especially in the energy sector. Political insiders say he will also start a conversation about deficit reduction measures. Although healthcare reform may still be subject to talks in Congress, passage of something resembling the Senate bill seems assured. Obama's job approval rating slumped 15 points since the start of the year to around 50 per cent at the end of 2009. His predecessor, George W Bush, left office with a 34 per cent approval rating. Ronald Reagan's approval stayed below 50 per cent for two years after 1981, but he won re-election in a landslide. Jimmy Carter and the elder George Bush had approval ratings well over 50 per cent at the end of their first year in office, but lost their re-election bids.

Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham will prorogue Parliament sometime this month, and any unpassed bills or motions will die unless special arrangements are made. A new parliamentary session will start in February with a ceremonial Speech from the Throne read by the governor-general outlining the government's new legislative agenda. The last time parliament was prorogued was in January 2006 when Perry Christie was prime minister. There is speculation in some quarters that the prorogation is designed to kill two sensitive House committees - one investigating abuse of Crown lands and the other looking into pedophile teachers, but insiders say it is all about adjusting the legislative calendar. According to FNM Chairman Carl Bethel, prorogation merely helps the government to focus on its achievements and determine priorities for the next session in advance of the general election, which must be called by 2012. "Prorogation is an efficient means of clearing an agenda that can become cluttered with Bills that have been tabled which the government no longer intends to proceed with, etc," Bethel said.

FEBRUARY

The Bahamas mid-year budget report may be postponed. In his 2009-2010 budget communication last May, the prime minister talked about modernising the government's financial administration, privatising public corporations, and rationalising taxes, tariffs and licensing. He also announced unemployment benefits combined with re-training for jobless workers. "Expectations are that the key tourism and foreign investment sectors will remain weak in 2009, resulting in further weakness in the construction sector and a further increase in the unemployment rate," he said. "However, some tempering to this outcome is expected to occur from the government’s accelerated capital works programme." In his mid-year report he can be expected to update Bahamians with the latest financial statistics. In mid-2009 government debt was over $2.9 billion - or 39 per cent of GDP - while the deficit was 4.7 per cent of GDP. Both of these key measures are approaching unsustainable levels and public spending may have to be restrained sooner rather than later. Total recurrent spending for this fiscal year was supposed to be $1.53 billion, with $255 million earmarked for capital works. The PM is expected to revise these figures to take account of current circumstances, but the budget excercise cannot take place while parliament is prorogued.

The next big protest opportunity for the Iranian opposition is February 11 - that's the 31st anniversary of Iran's 1979 revolution, when the Shah's forces finally surrendered. The opposition has been engaged in a running battle with the Islamic government since elections six months ago that many believe were rigged. The government has threatened a sharp crackdown on future demonstrations, and experts say street demos alone will not be enough to dislodge the regime. However, things could get interesting if workers go out on strike, which is what happened in 1979. The current opposition goal is not to overthrow the Islamic system, which they themselves helped build, but to reverse what they say was a fraudulent election, and make pro-democracy reforms. After fleeing Iran in 1979, the deposed Shah spent time in a villa on Paradise Island before undergoing surgery in the US, which helped provoke the US embassy hostage crisis in Teheran. Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi died of cancer in Egypt the following year.

Parliament reconvenes this month when the traditional Speech from the Throne outlining the government's new agenda will be read in the Senate by Governor-General Arthur D Hanna. The last Throne Speech was delivered on May 23, 2007, just after the FNM was elected to a third non-consecutive term in office. In that speech the government promised to set appropriate standards of conduct for cabinet ministers and parliamentarians, provide regular public reports on the state of the nation, ensure media access to information, disclose all agreements with international investors, and guarantee public service responsiveness to the concerns of citizens. At the top of the government's legislative list were enactment of a code of ethics for ministers and creation of an ombudsman - neither of which has been pursued. In 2002, the newly elected PLP administration also promised a code of conduct for ministers and top civil servants, but failed to deliver.

MARCH

The 82nd Academy Awards will be presented in hollywood. Founded in 1927 by film industry leaders, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences made the first awards at a dinner in the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel in May 1929. The event was televised for the first time in 1953 and since 1969 has been broadcast internationally, reaching fans in over 200 countries. The gold-plated Oscar statuette is the world's most recognised trophy and more than 2700 have been awarded. Slumdog Millionaire won last year's Best Picture award.

The Southern Hemisphere Naked Bike Ride takes place in Australia, South Africa, Argentina and Peru. Don't want to travel that far to see a nude cyclist? Then head for Miami, Tampa, Montreal or Toronto in June for the northern hemisphere ride. The event aims to put a stop to "the indecent exposure of people and the planet to cars and the pollution they create." Since 2004 people have been participating in the "largest naked event promoting cycling in the history of humanity," promoters say. "It's a free, non-sexual, fun bike ride, and the dress code is 'As Bare As You Dare'." Support for this event comes from cycling advocacy and social nudity circles.

International Women's Day is observed on March 8. The event originated in 1908 when New York garment workers began demanding better conditions. Two years later, an international conference of women determined that a day should be set aside to press for women's demands. International Womens Day promotes equality between women and men. The United Nations is also working to merge several existing offices into a single authoritative body to tackle women's issues that will be comparable to other major UN funds and programmes. Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon is expected to appoint an under-secretary-general to head the new entity and lead the UN’s efforts in this field.

APRIL

The 2010 Bahamas Weather Conference has been cancelled by the Ministry of Tourism, but is expected to reconvene in 2011. Tourism Minister Vincent Vanderpool Wallace says the funds were needed to support an advertising promotion scheduled to be launched in January, offering a "companion flies free" premium based on a minimum length of stay at a participating hotel. During the last 14 years the weather conference has grown from a small meeting of the minds to a "widely respected and coveted event." In 2009 it brought together top officials from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association and the National Hurricane Center in Miami, as well as emergency managers and academic experts at the Sheraton Nassau Beach Resort.

Disney's Oceans documentary premieres on April 22 (the 40th anniversary of Earth Day). Oceans has been described as "a movie that has to been seen to be believed. The footage, which was painstakingly gathered over several years, is nothing short of remarkable." Part proceeds from the first week of showings will be donated to The Nature Conservancy's Bahamas office to support the expansion and management of new marine parks through the Adopt-a-Coral Reef project. The Conservancy and its partner - The Bahamas National Trust - aim to protect 500,000 acres of important marine habitat throughout the archipelago. These new and expanded protected areas will contain miles of vital coral reefs that provide natural habitat and feeding grounds for hundreds of marine species. The film is expected to premiere in Nassau at the Atlantis and Galleria cinemas. Disney's earlier release - Earth - was its first feature-length nature documentary, grossing over $100 million.

MAY

The Department of Statistics will conduct Census 2010 beginning on May 3. This will be a massive exercise to provide socio-demographic data on the entire population of The Bahamas - every household, subdivision, cay, island and marina will be canvassed. For the first time there will be questions on crime, to determine trends and possible solutions to the problem. The last census in 2000 cost about $3 million, and $5 million has been budgeted for Census 2010. The Bahamas’ current population is estimated at 350,000.

The 2010-2011 Bahamas budget will probably be the most significant economic plan announced by any Bahamian government in decades. Following its 2009 meetings with the government, the International Monetary Fund called for "structural reforms to promote economic diversification and private-sector-led growth over the medium term." The IMF also stressed the need for a broader tax base, calling specifically for a goods and services (VAT) tax to help reduce public debt to a targeted 30–35 per cent of GDP. It remains to be seen now much of a financial revolution we are in for as a result of the current unprecedented economic downturn. In December, the international credit rating agency, Standard & Poor, downgraded the Bahamas' rating due to our deteriorating fiscal position as a result of rising public spending and falling tax revenues. "Following three years of economic contraction" the agency said, "growth prospects beginning in 2011 are modest."

JUNE

The United Kingdom general election is due to take place on or before June 3. The number of seats in parliament will rise from 646 to 650, with the governing Labour Party seeking a fourth consecutive term in office. The Conservative Party hopes to regain the dominance it held before 1997, while the Liberal Democrats hope to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. Various opinion polls conducted in December show the Conservatives with at least a 9 point lead over Labour, which won the 2005 general election with just over 35 per cent of the popular vote. The current seat total is 349 for Labour, 193 for Conservatives and 63 for the Liberal Democrats. The remainder are held by small parties.

Canada will host 10,000 participants at the G8 and G20 summits June 26-27 in Toronto. South Korea will host a subsequent G20 summit next November in Seoul, and the future role of the G8 as an organisation will be downgraded at a minimum. The Group of 8 is made up of the world's most industrialised countries and until now has been the leading forum dealing with global issues. The Group of 20 includes finance ministers and central bank governors from the G8 as well as top emerging economies like China, India and Brazil. The G-20 has been designated as the leading global forum for economic co-operation going forward.

Comments

[Ken Bobrosky]

I enjoyed this - a refreshing break from the traditional never-ending review of the previous year.

It is funny, however, that in looking at the future it does, in so many ways, seem to be a carbon copy of the past. I guess that is normal, but our lives do seem to revolve in an unending cycle.

I was unaware of the Naked Bike Ride coming up and am most appreciative for your drawing my attention to this novel (or is it navel) event. My warped mind believes that nudity will be the answer to many of mankind's problems in the future.

I believe that if all of our airline flights required total nudity, the security problems and potential terrorist problem would be practically solved!

[Bahamas B2B]

I agree with the comment above. On BahamasB2B, we always do a 'year in review' kind of thing, with the news. This is an interesting variation and useful info as well.

[jackson burnside]

You missed out Transforming Spaces 2010, Saturday ans Sunday, March 13th and 14th. As you know this is the Art Bus Tour of many Nassau Galleries. The tour is gaining international attention and is growing each year.