The Question of Judgment in Politics

by Simon

Dr. Hubert Minnis was most fortunate as leaders of the opposition go or, more to the point, come to that top job.  Rarely does one gain such a prize without a contest, as did the MP for Killarney.   

Returning to opposition after being defeated as the government in the 2013 Australian general election, the Labour Party set about electing a new leader who would subsequently become leader of the opposition.  

The two-tier process involved voting by rank-and-file members of the party followed by a ballot of the parliamentary party, with both voting blocs equally weighted to determine the winner.

Approximately a year and a half into his second non-consecutive term as prime minister, Bahamians have a generally good sense of the patterns and habits of leadership that will characterize the balance of Perry Christie’s term.

Dr. Minnis has been in post long enough for a general assessment of his leadership of the opposition.  The Leader of the Opposition has shown measurable growth in the office.  

But has he demonstrated and does he possess the quality and degree of policy and political judgment required of that office and that of prime minister?      

As in all fields, the political arena requires natural talent and a combination of certain skills.  Love of politics doesn’t mean that one is good in the arena.  Moreover, relatively few possess the kaleidoscope of qualities required to succeed as leader of the opposition and as prime minister.

The commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the assassination of John F. Kennedy highlighted the legacy, and the promise of a political talent violently cut short.  

Political talent requires honing and refinement.  Before he ran successfully for the House of Representatives and subsequently the Senate, Kennedy had considerable coaching ranging from voice-training to the political arts.  There is no American equivalent of our leader of the opposition. 

He was famously surrounded by a brain trust, including the historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. and counsellor and wordsmith Ted Sorenson who lent an economy and discipline of expression to Kennedy’s sonorous cadence, fertile imagination and exuberance.

TALENT

Whether one considers that JFK’s mystique is hyped or romanticized, few doubt that Kennedy’s raw political talent and extraordinary charisma -- aided crucially by his father’s deep pockets -- helped catapult him to the Oval Office as his country’s then youngest elected president.  

In the arena, especially at the commanding heights, talent is tested.  Getting elected is one test.  Governing is far more demanding.  In his first year in office in the Bay of Pigs Invasion debacle, the successful candidate failed miserably.  

Despite his stellar talent, his brain trust, his coaching and his rapier intellect, Kennedy knew that this was a spectacular failure of judgment on his part.

It was a failure that he owned.  To dissect his misjudgement, the youthful president invited his predecessor Republican Dwight Eisenhower to Camp David to help him to unravel what went wrong.

Kennedy spent much of the recent 1960 campaign criticizing the outgoing Eisenhower administration.  Now he was seeking insight from Ike, in his 70s, the then oldest man to demit the US presidency.   

Eisenhower asked Kennedy a basic question about the latter’s decision-making process leading up to the Bay of Pigs:  Did he make his fateful decisions surrounded by a small group of advisers or with a larger group that might have afforded him greater perspective?

Kennedy, to his peril, had chosen the former.  With his vast military experience, Eisenhower was charier of supposedly expert advice from the armed forces and the intelligence services.     

Retired US General Colin Powell echoed Eisenhower’s caution, the former having observed: “Experts often possess more data than judgment.”

A fundamental lesson of leadership is that no matter the advice of experts, in the end, a leader must rely on his or her judgment in making critical decisions.    

The following year during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy confronted an even greater test of his mettle and his judgment.  He was determined not to replay similar mistakes.

He consulted more broadly, utilizing back channels and outside advice, studying a considerable amount of briefing material, weighing the recommendations of experts and competing options with his own prudential and informed judgment, tempering strident voices with those he considered more prudent.

JUDGMENT

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, it was Kennedy’s judgment which proved pivotal, helping to avert a possible nuclear nightmare.  

The sophistication of judgment required of a potential successful president or prime minister involves a complex of attributes few possess, such as scepticism and curiousness, coalescing into a fine-tuned instinct, a sixth sense.     

Soon after becoming Opposition Leader, Dr. Minnis announced his support of the legalization of the numbers business, despite the fact that the government had not even formulated the questions to be put in a referendum.  

It was the beginning of a worrisome pattern of impulsiveness, poor judgment and unreflective comments.  Dr. Minnis competed with the prime minister for his flip flopping in the gambling referendum.  

Christie and the PLP lost their referendum gamble.  But the government’s loss did not prove to be much of a gain for the opposition, with Dr. Minnis constantly faltering in his policy and political judgment throughout the referendum debate. 

Fast-forward to last Saturday and the FNM’s Rally in the Alley; to put it mildly, it was a political train wreck in the making as obvious as a full moon on the clearest of cloudless nights. 

Bracketed by the gambling debate and last week’s ill-advised rally, there were a host of issues on which Dr. Minnis enjoyed numerous opportunities to test his policy and political judgment.  

He has rarely risen to the occasion, sometimes making matters worse for himself and the FNM, generally exhibiting a pattern of stupefyingly poor judgment, more of which next week.  

This for now: Why have widespread anger and severe disappointment with Christie and his government not translated into support for the Dr. Minnis-led opposition?  

One clue may be found in a photo featured on the front pages of two leading dailies some weeks ago, of the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition sharing a meal and a laugh at a popular bistro. 

If a picture is worth at least a thousand words, that’s about enough words to unfold the narrative frame and trend behind the photo-op and the title of next week’s column, “Why the PLP is losing, but the FNM is not gaining”.

Comments

[julian e kemp]

i recently read a article about the present prime minister on passing the buck.i happen to work at the only leadership school in the bahamas, we have recently introduce the seven habits to good leadership.the p m should get a copy and study.i have a few points that i would like him to read. point one set high standards,priortize his activities and become personally involve, be sensitive and listen to people when they speak,don"t take thing for granted stay on top of things and search out the problems.