Aftermath of the 2017 Bahamas General Election Tsunami

by Larry Smith

Shortly before the May 10 general election, former Deputy Prime Minister Philip Davis and retired cabinet minister George Smith both predicted a PLP win.

“I see no reason why we shouldn’t take 30 seats,” Davis said smugly. And according to Smith, the vote would be close, "(but) in the end the PLP will emerge victorious.”

These forecasts required us to accept that the PLP had not lost any support over it’s disreputable five-year term - a stretch by any measure.

I wrote some weeks ago that a clear case could be made that conditions in the country today are very similar to those in 1992. In addition to the PLP's increasingly authoritarian style, back then the country was running out of economic options due to corruption and mismanagement. 

I also pointed out that the DNA - which drew over 13,000 votes in the 2012 election - was the biggest unknown quantity that could actually affect this election. If it did not exist, I said, there is no doubt that Christie's PLP would be swept out in a landslide. 

Until shortly before the election, the prevailing view was that the DNA would again split the anti-government vote, and bring about a PLP victory that would be disastrous for the country. Many opposition activists and supporters were genuinely distressed over the failure of the FNM and DNA to forge some kind of alliance against the PLP. 

Added to this uncertainty factor was the split between FNM leader Hubert Minnis and his former deputy Loretta Butler-Turner. Butler-Turner had been talking to the DNA about an electoral agreement, but what she described as "an anti-establishment alliance" failed to materialise.

But as the election date approached, infighting within the FNM died down and most opposition supporters coalesced around Minnis as the only effective choice. The FNM was also able to put forward many fresh and credible candidates, and the seven rebel MPs became politically irrelevant.

Only Butler-Turner decided to run as an independent in Long Island, which turned out to be a poor decision. She was handily defeated by Adrian Gibson in the ensuing FNM wave and appears to be out of the picture for the medium term at least.

At this writing, the PLP retained only four seats in parliament (Glenys Hanna-Martin in Englerston; Philip Davis in Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador; Chester Cooper in Exuma; and Picewell Forbes in South Andros.

Following Minnis’ swearing in as prime minister on May 11, the  big question is who will lead the opposition.

Forbes - a former radio announcer - is a cipher of little substance. Cooper is a successful business executive and political newcomer. Hanna-Martin is the scion of a famous PLP dynasty. And Davis was deputy prime minister in the outgoing government.

Both Hanna-Martin and Davis have been MPs and cabinet ministers since the first Christie administration took office in 2002. At 65 Davis is the senior figure and already had his sights on succeeding Christie as party leader. 

But as he is considered an old-line PLP fixer with poor speaking skills and no charisma, the selection of Davis as opposition leader would be counter-productive in the present circumstances. 

Cooper would be the smart choice for the post of leader in parliament. He is fresh, untainted by political scandal, unrelated to any political dynasty, and not a part of the geriatric PLP mafia. But party grandees are unlikely to allow Brave and Glenys to be sidelined.

 

As for the party leadership, Christie (who has apparently lost his Farm Road seat) first has to resign or a convention must be called to select a new leader. At the last convention in November, his only challenger was Alfred Sears who failed dismally. Sears also lost his election bid in Fort Charlotte.

 

So the conventional wisdom would be that Davis takes over as both party leader and leader in the House, and the PLP does not get the radical overhaul it needs to regain the electorate’s trust.

But it will still be a large and powerful organization, and its influence will grow again over time. Whether the PLP learns from past mistakes, gets rid of the geriatric mafia and creates a new culture remains to be seen.

 

The other big question is what will happen to the DNA. Party leader Bran McCartney has given no indication so far of falling on his sword, and the party seems content to carry on, despite the fact it had no impact on the results this time around.

 

The FNM - which not too long ago was seen as a basket case - is now in full control after the biggest win in our electoral history.

 

But waiting in the wings are the We March activists who were able to focus a lot of the anti-PLP anger in the months leading up to the election. Here's what Ranard Henfield, one of the chief organizers,  had to say:

 

"Now that we've eliminated the PLP, who laughed at our list of issues when they were the government on Black Friday, We March will issue an updated list to Dr. Hubert Minnis. Our role is once again to be a pressure group - and the OPPOSITION if the four PLPs can't be effective."

Comments

[Leandra Esfakis]

At the risk of mastering the obvious, the 2017 election was another teachable moment, for both the incoming and outgoing governments.
The Bahamian people sent a clear message and it is this: you have a 5 year window of opportunity to serve your constituency, your country and our Consitutional principles of governance: to be active, effective, transparent and accountable: to produce positive outcomes.
The PLP has left the country gasping somewhere between the Emergency room and ICU.
The next challenge for the good Doctor P. M. Minnis is to get it out of sick bay and back on its feet.

[Gregory Culmer]

What I find so fascinating about this era in Bahamian politics is that the chairman of the PLP, Mr. Roberts, is unable to understand why his party was so soundly and thoroughly rejected. The night of the election this amused me, but the more I think about it the more it frightens me. How could a man -- much more so an entire political class -- be so obscenely out of touch? For goodness sake a, 22 year old beat Bernard Nottage and neither the former prime minister nor the party chairman had the foresight to resign that evening? Additionally, the ever a pompous Mr. McCartney cannot read the writing on the wall and stop wasting people's money and time? I would be extremely interested to look over the books of the DNA and find out if the party is in debt (and to whom). Mr. Christie honestly thought that the people would accept the sham he called a 51% economic stake in BTC, knowing full well the company had done more under private ownership in a few weeks than the government under both parties was able to accomplish in decades. I am honestly shocked that the BAMSI dorm fire insurance scandal did not result in a criminal indictment for Mr. Davis or, at the very least, end his political career.